Each year, Major League Baseball (MLB) confronts a process that teams would rather avoid: salary arbitration. This system offers players with at least three years of major league service, but who are not yet eligible for free agency, their first real opportunity to negotiate a pay raise. When a team and a player cannot settle on a salary, the disagreement can escalate to a hearing before an independent arbitrator or panel. During this hearing, the player presents arguments supporting their desired salary, while the team argues against it. These proceedings are often contentious and can strain relationships, as teams typically win about 60% of cases. This is why the majority of arbitration-eligible disputes are resolved before reaching the hearing stage.
This year, the Boston Red Sox largely managed to avoid such confrontations. They successfully reached agreements with three of their four arbitration-eligible players, as announced on Thursday. However, negotiations with Jarren Duran, the 2024 All-Star Game MVP, remain unresolved. Despite the disagreement being over a relatively small sum—$500,000 in baseball terms—the situation could lead to a contentious arbitration hearing.
The Red Sox offered Duran $3.5 million, but the player is seeking $4 million following a breakout 2024 season. Duran posted impressive stats, including an .834 OPS, 21 home runs, and 34 stolen bases in 41 attempts. The $500,000 gap represents just 0.3% of Boston’s projected 2025 payroll. If the two sides fail to reach an agreement, the matter will be decided by an arbitration panel, which will choose either the team’s offer or the player’s demand—no middle ground is allowed. Arbitration hearings are scheduled to take place between January 27 and February 14 in St. Petersburg, Florida, but an agreement could still be reached beforehand.
Alternatively, the Red Sox could trade Duran rather than risk the potential fallout of a hearing. While much offseason speculation has focused on trading 24-year-old first baseman Triston Casas, some analysts, such as Alex Mayes of the Talk Sox blog, view Duran as a more likely trade candidate. Coming off a career year, Duran’s value is at its peak. However, Mayes argues that Duran’s history of foot injuries and his reliance on speed may lead to a decline in performance, making now an ideal time to move him.
Mayes even suggests packaging Duran with Boston’s top prospect, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, to secure a significant return, such as a top-tier starting pitcher. Potential targets include Seattle’s George Kirby, who posted a 3.53 ERA in 33 games last season, or Logan Gilbert, who led the league in innings pitched (208 2/3) with a stellar 0.887 WHIP and a 3.23 ERA. While trading Duran and Mayer could yield substantial benefits, the Red Sox must ensure the return justifies the loss of two promising assets.
