There have been recent calls for Louie Varland to return to the Twins as a late-inning reliever. However, with Joe Ryan expected to miss significant time due to a grade 2 Teres Major strain, which typically requires over eight weeks to heal, the lack of a trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline likely means Varland will be moved into the rotation for the rest of the season. What can the Twins anticipate from him now? Can he step up in Ryan’s absence?
Varland started the season as the presumed fifth starter but struggled significantly, leading to his option to Triple-A after allowing 17 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings over his first four starts. His performance was not merely a case of bad luck, as evidenced by his troubling OPS against of 1.086, which made every opposing hitter seem like a star. His issues persisted during nearly two months at St. Paul, where he posted a poor 7.33 ERA (though his 4.94 FIP was somewhat better). His struggles were largely due to his fastball, which had a .320 BAA and a concerning .440 wOBA over more than 300 pitches. A major factor was his poor pitch location, often leaving pitches over the middle of the plate.
Since late June, Varland has shown improvement. In his last six starts with the Saints, he has allowed only five earned runs in 30 1/3 innings, with nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings and a WHIP of 1.15. His BABIP has been relatively low at .254, suggesting his 4.08 FIP might be a more accurate reflection of his performance. As a fifth starter, this is still quite effective.
Varland’s recent success is due to a shift in his approach, primarily targeting the top of the zone with his fastball. This adjustment has resulted in significantly less hard contact, as shown by his .233 OPS against his fastball and a higher frequency of pitches located up in the zone.
In two spot starts in June, he posted a 1.93 ERA with an FIP of around 2.30, holding opponents to a .181 wOBA, although he faced weaker teams like the Rockies and A’s. The question now is whether he can maintain this level of performance at the big-league level and keep his ERA in the 4s for the remainder of the season. The Twins will be hoping for just that, as the season could otherwise end on a disappointing note.
