The Toronto Blue Jays face a pivotal decision. Exiting the All-Star Break with a 44-52 record, they trail the AL East by 14 games and the Wild Card by 9.5 games. Their -66 run differential and a Pythagorean record of 41-55 indicate that their poor performance is not just bad luck. Consequently, the 2024 season is considered a lost cause for Toronto, positioning them as likely sellers at the trade deadline.
This brings up the crucial question regarding Vladimir Guerrero Jr. As the standout of a promising Blue Jays prospect wave that revitalized the team in 2020, Guerrero has an impressive track record with four consecutive All-Star selections (2021-2024), a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. If not for Shohei Ohtani, Guerrero would have been the 2021 AL MVP. Despite significant free agency spending, the Blue Jays have failed to build a consistent contender around him. With Guerrero a year away from free agency, Toronto must decide whether to trade him to start a rebuild or offer him an extension.
Although Guerrero hasn’t fully met the high expectations set after the 2021 season, he remains one of the league’s top hitters. His 127 wRC+ over the past three seasons ranks 27th out of 182 qualifying hitters, with 72 home runs placing him 27th as well. Among first basemen, only Freddie Freeman, Yandy Díaz, Paul Goldschmidt, and Pete Alonso have been more productive at the plate during this period. This season, Guerrero’s wRC+ of 133 is only surpassed by Freeman (169) and Bryce Harper (149) among first basemen, and his Statcast data suggests his performance should remain strong.
If Guerrero were to join the Yankees, he would instantly become their third-best hitter, forming a formidable 2-3-4 lineup with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Guerrero excels against left-handed pitchers with a .274/.384/.468 slash line, significantly better than the Yankees’ collective .235/.328/.374 against lefties, which is heavily boosted by Judge’s and Soto’s performances.
Previously, the Yankees’ need for a first baseman was questionable, given Ben Rice’s strong performance. However, Jose Trevino’s injury has created more flexibility, potentially allowing Rice to catch part-time and free up first base at-bats. This scenario assumes Giancarlo Stanton remains healthy and productive, which is uncertain.
Nevertheless, this remains speculative, as there is no indication the Blue Jays are looking to trade Guerrero, and they would likely avoid trading him within the division. The Yankees would need to make an extraordinary offer to acquire Guerrero, and even if willing to part with top prospects, they might prioritize a top-tier starting pitcher or a player to fill a more urgent positional need.
