Before the commencement of the 2024 season, NESN.com is scrutinizing various notable prospects within the Boston Red Sox organization, employing insights and analyses from industry specialists to assess each player’s prospects for the upcoming campaign. First in line for evaluation is Marcelo Mayer.
Marcelo Mayer, selected as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, began the 2023 season as the undisputed top prospect in the Red Sox system.
A year later, while many experts still uphold his premier status, it’s apparent that his shine has dimmed slightly compared to his previous trajectory.
So, what can we gather about Mayer’s potential ahead of the 2024 season? Here’s a comprehensive overview of the 21-year-old shortstop:
Background:
Mayer was widely regarded as the standout player in the 2021 MLB Draft. His selection by the Red Sox came after the Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers, and Detroit Tigers picked Henry Davis (catcher), Jack Leiter (right-handed pitcher), and Jackson Jobe (right-handed pitcher), respectively, in the first three slots. This acquisition was a significant win for Boston following their disappointing 2020 season under Ron Roenicke.
Initial impressions? Mayer possesses charisma both on and off the field. The product of Eastlake High School in Chula Vista, Calif., he could easily transition into a career in Hollywood, drawing social media attention for his striking resemblance to actor Adrian Grenier, known for his role as Vincent Chase in the TV series “Entourage.”
Mayer marked the Red Sox’s highest draft pick since they selected pitcher Mike Garman third overall in 1967. Although Boston had leaned toward selecting position players, especially infielders, in recent drafts, Mayer’s selection was a no-brainer. Notably, in 2022, the Red Sox revisited Southern California talent, picking Mikey Romero, Mayer’s former travel teammate, with the 24th overall pick.
Mayer initially garnered scouts’ attention while playing alongside Keoni Cavaco, the Minnesota Twins’ 2019 first-round pick, from Eastlake High School. The trajectory of his career seemed consistently upward until 2023.
While his trajectory is still upward, there’s been some wavering, especially due to a shoulder injury in the previous season. Thus, this upcoming year holds significant weight for Mayer to reaffirm his status as one of baseball’s top prospects.
Scouting report:
Essentially, it’s advisable to overlook Mayer’s performance in 2023, which was significantly impacted by his shoulder injury.
However, dismissing last year’s performance is easier said than done. Real-life mulligans are harder to come by than the occasional golfing “breakfast ball” on Sunday mornings. Nonetheless, it’s evident that Mayer’s shoulder injury, sustained in May, derailed his second full professional season.
Until his injury, Mayer showcased promising performance at High-A Greenville, demonstrating strong hitting skills and solid exit velocity. Despite some recurring issues with zone expansion and breaking ball recognition, his overall performance was commendable.
Mayer attempted to play through the injury, which ultimately worsened, hampering his production and prematurely ending his season in August.
Reflecting on the experience, Mayer acknowledged his failure to heed his body’s signals, highlighting the need for a more cautious approach. Now, with the injury behind him and his shoulder in good condition, Mayer aims to remind everyone of his potential as both an offensive and defensive asset.
Mayer’s left-handed swing is described as smooth, enabling him to make consistent contact across the field. While his power may develop further over time, the Red Sox can be confident in his advanced approach when he’s healthy and performing at his best.
His defensive capabilities are equally impressive, despite his stature of 6-foot-3 and 188 pounds. Although there’s a possibility of a future shift to third base, his skills at shortstop have drawn praise, particularly for his clean fielding actions and strong arm.
Rankings and forecasts:
Various publications have positioned Mayer differently in their prospect rankings for the 2024 season. Baseball America ranked him at No. 14, while MLB Pipeline placed him at No. 15. The Athletic’s Keith Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked him at No. 8 and No. 28, respectively, showcasing the impact of last year’s injury on his standing.
Most likely outcome:
Mayer is projected to become an above-average everyday shortstop. While he may not boast flashy attributes like towering power or exceptional speed, his well-rounded skill set promises a high floor along with a high ceiling.
Best-case scenario:
In his best-case scenario, Mayer could evolve into an All-Star shortstop. Comparisons to players like Corey Seager and Xander Bogaerts highlight his potential to become a significant asset for the Red Sox, although such outcomes shouldn’t be the expectation.
SoxProspects ranking:
Mayer is currently ranked as the No. 2 prospect in the Red Sox system, competing closely with Roman Anthony for the top spot.
Fenway forecast:
While a debut in the MLB during the 2024 season is plausible, a more realistic timeline places his arrival in 2025. With Trevor Story set as Boston’s starting shortstop and Mayer being just 21 years old, the organization may opt for patience, allowing him to fully develop before his promotion.
