Pre-season Formula 1 testing concluded with a clear picture emerging. Despite Max Verstappen’s fourth-place finish on the final day, his early time of 1m30.755s on Friday afternoon, set on worn C3 tires, roughly translates to a 1m30.5s lap on fresh C3s. Meanwhile, the top three cars, Ferrari, Mercedes, and Sauber, set their times on the faster C4 tire, giving them a theoretical advantage of about 0.6 seconds. Correcting for tire differences and considering track conditions, Verstappen’s Red Bull seemed to hold an edge of approximately 0.4 seconds over Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari and George Russell’s Mercedes.
Ferrari showcased a consistent pace throughout testing, while Mercedes only revealed its true potential late on the final day and didn’t conduct a race simulation, leaving some uncertainty about its performance. Adjusting for tire types, Russell’s lap time closely matched Leclerc’s, suggesting Ferrari might have a slight advantage over Mercedes on a single lap.
Carlos Sainz’s impressive time from Thursday wasn’t approached on the final day, indicating a possible slowdown in track conditions. Comparing times, it appears Verstappen edged Leclerc by 0.4 seconds on Friday, suggesting Ferrari may slightly trail Red Bull over one lap.
In terms of race pace, Verstappen demonstrated strong performance, with Ferrari also showing promising signs of improved tire degradation compared to last year. Aston Martin’s race simulation suggested they might finish behind Red Bull and possibly Ferrari, while McLaren’s race pace fell short despite a strong qualifying performance. Haas lagged significantly behind in race simulation.
Overall, while there’s a clear order emerging from the testing data, some margins are narrow, leaving room for potential shifts in performance as the season progresses.
